Exhausted after four years of European Great War between 1914 to 1918, Germany offered to its adversaries an armistice; a cease fire to end the bloodshed. It fought Britain and France in the west and Russia in the east in a bloody war that cost the Europeans around 20 million lives. Germany sent the cease-fire offer via the President of the United States, Woodrow Wilson, someone that it hoped to play a mediating role. Several months later an agreement called the Treaty of Versailles was signed.
After the signing of the treaty of Versailles, the famed French general Ferdinand Foch, who was credited as a key leader in the war said, “This is not a peace treaty, this is an armistice for 20 years”. His prediction turned out to be very accurate as the same European nations plunged back into an even more severe war in 1939, almost exactly 20 years later. His sobering message despite the celebrations at the signing at the Chateau de Versailles was clear: Peace has not been reached.
The treaty of Versailles was criticized by many, including by a British prominent economist John Maynard Keynes, as too harsh towards Germany. It was produced with a one-sided agenda by the Triple Entente members and the USA, without any input or considerations for the situation of Germany. In other words, the USA was not a neutral mediator; it was there to serve its own agenda, including ensuring a repayment of its loan given to the European countries. The US was the fund provider of the war, helping Britain and France who were running out of reserves during the long battles. At the final draft of the document, Germany was not only required to relinquish the territories that it occupied, it was also given a crippling economic burden. It was to take responsibilities of all the losses (and debts) incurred by its adversaries. The treatment of Germany during the conclusion of the European Great War was considered as one possible trigger for the rise of Nazi and the World War II.
The rise and fall of Germany during this era offer a few useful lessons for China. Let’s look back to the moments in the early 1900s, before the war began.
The rising power and the threatened incumbent
In the 1900s Europe witnessed the breathtaking rise of Germany as an industrialized empire. Within less than twenty years, Germany surpassed Britain in steel production and became the manufacturing powerhouse for Europe. Britain was still the reigning global power with its vast colonies around the world. At its peak, 25% of the world’s population lived in the territory of the British empire. Nevertheless, Britain was witnessing its dominance rapidly taken over in many areas. One factor that mattered significantly was the growing German Navy to rival its own dominance in the seas. The British Empire knew the importance of the navy, as it rose to global dominance centuries earlier by defeating the weaker European colonizers like Spain, Portuguese and Netherland in the seas.
The 1900 Britain was also an empire in pain. Ireland, one of its fragile and volatile territories, was rising up for independence. Its intensifying revolt was drawing Britain into a possible civil war. India, the jewel in its colonies, was showing early signs of organized movements towards independence. In the early 1900s, Britain’s profitability in manufacturing was beginning to wane as the US and Germany became formidable competitors. Britain was helped with the emergence of finance industry and the stock market, and London found a strong role as a global financial center. However, the 1900s Britain also faced a combination of rising inflation and stagnating salaries, which has led to many social unrests, strikes and labor movements. While employment was at the record low of below 3%, the working class were finding themselves poorer. In Britain early 1900, the rich were getting richer, the rest was getting poorer.
In the 21st century the world witnessed China’s surge as the rising economy. China’s manufacturing output in 2020 stands at 2.2 times to that of the USA. It is also the primary trading partner of around 120 nations in the world including almost all of US’ allies. China is the largest automotive market in the world, a world leader in renewable energy, batteries and new energy vehicles.
China is not without problems. It is facing significant troubles in its property sector, a shrinking and aging population and many other social issues related to income disparities between rich and poor. Nevertheless, China has reached a level of influence that is competitive to that of the USA.
Similar to 1900 Britain, the USA of the present time is a superpower in pain, facing significant troubles domestically as well as globally. The US’ political system is outdated and corrupted, leading to a polarized population and a dysfunctional democratic process. Their fiscal discipline has been abandoned for many decades, causing soaring and unstoppable debt level. The USA is also facing rising resistance around the world to its unipolar hegemony, a trend that will continue to accelerate as many formerly colonized nations sought to change the balance of power in the world.
However, the USA is still a feared incumbent, a formidable superpower. It has more than 800 military bases around the world, a very large nuclear arsenal and a dominating role over its NATO allies. Its US Dollar is still the de-facto world currency, giving the USA the ability to sanction its everyone else at will, print unlimited amount of money without worries of devaluation and control the agenda of its alliances around the world.
Yet, the USA is increasingly insecure just like Britain was in the 1900. The US reacts to China’s development with increasing hostilities. It launches public condemnations on every chance instead of reaching out to have a constructive diplomatic talk. It created new alliances with other Asian nations to try to turn their agenda against China. It worked on the mainstream media, social media and any other public channels to sway the US public opinion against China. It also drew hard line rhetoric on Taiwan, creating further tension and chances for a hot-war.
Soft Power Matters
The 1900 Germany’s was also a lesson on public opinion disasters. Its arrogant and chauvinistic Kaiser Wilhelm II was known for making derogatory statements about its European neighbors and other nations. He made his own empire a perfect villain for the rest of the world. His decision to back Austria-Hungary on the war against Serbia put Germany in conflict with Russia. When Germany decided to attack an independent state Belgium as a part of plan to attack France, Britain found the perfect reason to get involved in the war.
By the time Britain declared a war against Germany, the British people’s sentiment against Germany was so negative that 700,000 young men volunteered to go to war within the first few months. Germany’s negative image also made it very easy for the British government to create alliance for a common fight.
China’s current government may not have a bombastic leader, but it is also facing the threat of declining public opinion in the world. Based on Pew Research Survey in 2023, 83% of US adult have a negative view about China. The US Government and the media portray a China that threatens everything that the USA stands for. As Professor Kishore Mahbubani, former President of UN Security Council recently stated in an interview, the US political parties are divided on everything except for their intention to stop China.
China’s public opinion problem in Europe is not yet as bad, but it is worsening. A survey done in 2024 by European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) concluded that 62 % of European public preferred a neutral position on the China – US conflict. Italy’s prime minister Georgia Meloni first decision after she was elected in 2023 was to terminate Italy’s membership to China’s belt and road initiatives. The G7 nation’s cold shoulder towards China was also in display during the latest G7 meeting in Italy in June 2024. While the summit was attended by many other guest dignitaries including the Prime Minister of India, the president of China was noticeably absent.
There is one key difference between China of 2024 and Germany of 1900. While Germany was standing alone against the rest of the world power due to its own behavior, the 2024 China benefits from a growing desire from many emerging powers to create multi-polar world that does not depend on the USA and its US Dollar. China is one of the key members of the BRICS group of countries, a group that is setting an alternative geopolitical agenda to the existing G7 group.
Nevertheless, China still has much to do to earn the respect of the rest of the world. Its territorial confrontations with its neighbors like Japan, the South-East-Asian Nations and India are debacles that does not help its image in the world and its relationship with other nations. The BRICS group, powerful as they are, comprises of competitive members who have many conflicting individual agendas. China’s territorial dispute with India, if escalated, could derail the progress made by the BRICS. Similarly, the South-East-Asian countries are waiting for China to show how graceful it can be as the largest power in the Pacific. A confrontation over areas in the South China Sea is unlikely going to help its image and may become a liability when conflict escalates.
A Peaceful World starts with a Peaceful China
For more than four centuries, the world has been molded in the western way of governance and global affairs. The west has led the world towards two great wars in the 20th century, and it is on track to do it again for the third time.
The only difference this time, is that the next global war has to include China. At least, that would be the way that the warheads of the G7 countries are expecting and anticipating. The US hardline on Taiwan is a bait that the US government set up, knowing that Taiwan carries a significant emotional content to the leaders of China.
There is a glimmer of hope: China does not have the same history and temperaments as the G7 members. It also has shown from its 15th century Ming Dynasty that it was able to conduct peaceful exploration of the world without colonizing, meddling with other people’s government or inciting a war. Its famous admiral Zheng-He went with hundreds of ships and many voyages to visit kingdoms in South-East Asia, India and the Arabia, carrying goods for exchange with the people he visited. He was so well received in the city of Semarang, Indonesia, that the temple he built is well preserved to this day. It remains a place for worship shared by multiple religions, including Islam, Christians and Buddhism.
China can also tap into the depth of wisdom that was taught by their sages, like Lao Tzu who taught “nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished”, or Confucius who taught “He who conquered himself is the mightiest warrior”. Even if a battle has to be fought, China can tap into the teachings of Sun Tzu, the famous writer of Art of War, who said “the greatest victory is that which requires no battle”.
It will be a shame if China falls into the bait of war or follows the same trapping of imperialism, hostilities and territorial expansionism. A peaceful world is in everyone’s interest from East to West, and it can only happen with a peaceful China. It should not be too much to ask from a country that is poised to be one of the major powers of the world in the years to come.